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When I first performed some of the analysis herein, I thought: "Wow! Bailey gets another title!". Unfortunately, that was before August 3rd, and the 100m final in Athens. Now, Donovan Bailey doesn't hold the World sprint crown. It's slipped and fallen south of the border (your border, that is!). Maurice Greene, a relative unknown with a PB of 10.43s three years ago, reigned victorious at 9.86s, matching the third best legal clocking ever. But, the events of that day didn't change the overall result of my work. By virtue of the race in question, some would say that Bailey is no longer the ``World's Fastest Man''. But has he lost his place in the record books altogether? Currently, the 9.84s from Atlanta is still holding strong. Can't we say more about our current international sprint sensation?
The truth is: not only can we say more about Bailey (who still seems to have the knack of saying too much about his competition!), but we can say something great about the ``Blast off! guy'' himself (to quote Bogdan Poprawski), Robert Esmie, perhaps our sprint celebrity for Syndey in 2000?
Following the National Championships in Abbotsford, the media jumped all over Bailey's winning performance. The World Record holder had run a mediocre, sub-par 10.03s, well off his 9.84 WR performance of 1996. Even a medal hope looked grim for the defending champion, who was himself displeased with his race, moaning and groaning of leg injuries and viruses. In defense of his prodigy, Texas-based coach Dan Pfaff was quick to lash back at the media, highlighting the underplayed fact that Bailey's run was into a head-wind, and a strong one at that: -2.1 m/s! He denounced the ongoing criticism of the time, and ventured to guess that it would probably correspond to about 9.90s under ideal conditions.
Taking a note from Pfaff, I quickly crunched this data in my wind-correction formula, which was presented in the July 1997 issue of Athletics. 10.03s (how mediocre!), and -2.1 m/s... Suffice it to say, Dan Pfaff was wrong. Bailey hadn't run a 9.90, nor had he even clocked anything in the 9.9 range. In fact, Bailey had cruised to a 9.89s still-air equivalent! At the time, this ranked him as the world leader on my wind-correction tables, numerically matching the legal world leader, Ato Boldon's early season 9.89s from Modesto, CA (run with a +0.8 m/s tailwind, a 9.94s still-air sprint; see Table 5).
What's interesting about that top 6 group of athletes? Several things. Two are from Canada, and two are from the US -- Canada ties the US for number of top 6 100m sprinters! What else is intersting? Robert Esmie doesn't train or live in the United States, a fact shared by the remaining athletes (Fredericks earned a CS degree from BYU in Provo, Utah) which was quickly pointed out in NBC's coverage of the World Championships. Blast off indeed -- chalk one up for the Canadians!
What of the other sub-9.90s performances this year, or even for all-time? Table 5 hints that the tail-wind has betrayed Leroy Burrell, King Carl, Boldon, and Fredericks, whose apparent sub-9.90s were all but same. However, Burrell did manage to make it under that barrier, but it wasn't with his then-WR 9.85s (+1.2 m/s) from Lausanne, nor his 9.88s (also +1.2) from the '91 WCs in Tokyo. Rather, a seemingly average 9.97s into a 1.3 m/s head-wind in the Barcelona '92 semi-finals earned him that spot as a calm 9.89s (a mark which is officially ranked almost 80th on the all-time list!).
And so, Greene takes the lead in the 1997 wind-corrected rankings, albeit by a mere 0.01s over Bailey (who, in all fairness, was a mere 0.01s in front of formidable Boldon's 9.90s in actual still-air conditions at Stuttgart -- no wind-correction needed!). But all is not lost for the good guys. Upon further inspection of Table 4, one notes that only one name appears twice: Bailey. While Burrell, Fredericks, and Boldon have each legally run sub-9.90s twice, Bailey is the only one who holds that title after all is wind-corrected!
What a race was the 1997 Canadian Championships men's 100m final! If we're to believe the wind-correction figures, it propelled Bailey to be the sole individual to hold two sub-9.90s still-air races, gave Robert Esmie a sub-10s run to tuck under his belt, and put Canada on an even par with the US for number of top 6 sub-10s world-class sprinters.
With Boldon and Greene also pushing their limits, and Fredericks lurking in the shadows, these lists may be out of date by the time they hit the stands. Given the right conditions, it is very likely that we'll see the 9.84 knocked down a couple notches. As to how far, and more importantly, by whom? Currently, almost any of these individuals can claim the title of ``World's Fastest Man'' by some definition or another. Although Greene holds the World Championship title, and in capturing gold posted the fastest time of the year (both wind-corrected and official), Bailey still retains his WR and has clocked the most sub-9.90s races ever after wind-correction. Meanwhile, Boldon holds the most legal sub-9.90s performances of 1997, and has run the fastest ever 100m/200m one-day combo (9.90/19.77 in Stuttgart). As for Fredericks: he's the current wind-corrected WR holder at 9.84s (Lausanne 1996).
Running at their current seasonal bests, a 9.83s mark can be made by Greene with a +0.8 m/s wind, Bailey with a +1.0, and Boldon with a +1.3 m/s tail boost. Fredericks is currently out of the running with his 9.97s, which would require an illegal +2.4 m/s aid. Of course, their current best efforts may not be their final best efforts for '97, so anything can happen. As of the Zurich GP (13 Aug), Bailey says he's throwing in the towel for '97 due to ongoing injuries -- but truth and fiction can sometimes be hard to discern when it comes to his injuries. Word on the track had it that he couldn't even jog down the straight a week prior to the 100m final in Atlanta...
Which one of our contestants holds the key? It'll be most exciting to find out. By the time you read this article (to paraphrase Ed McMahon): "Someone may already be a winner!".
| Table 1. Bailey's 1997 progression, best per meet (to 13 Aug 1997) | |||
| Date | Wind-corrected time | Official time and wind | Location |
| 04 May | 10.13 | (10.13, +0.0) | Rio de Janeiro |
| 08 Jun | 10.32 | (10.28, +0.6) | Moscow (cold rain) |
| 25 Jun | 9.98 | (10.07, -1.5) | Paris |
| 02 Jul | 10.03 | (9.97, +1.0) | Lausanne |
| 19 Jul | 9.89 | (10.03, -2.1) | Abbotsford |
| 03 Aug | 9.93 | (9.91, +0.2) | Athens WC |
| 9.94 | (9.91, +0.5) | Athens WC (sf) | |
| 13 Aug | 10.13 | (10.17, -0.7) | Zurich |
| Table 2. 100m final from Abbotsford (wind -2.1 m/s), 19 Jul 1997 | ||
| 1. Donovan Bailey | 9.89 | (10.03) |
| 2. Robert Esmie | 9.96 | (10.10) |
| 3. Bruny Surin | 10.01 | (10.15) |
| 4. Carleton Chamers | 10.13 | (10.27) |
| 5. Glenroy Gilbert | 10.15 | (10.29) |
| 6. O'Brien Gibbons | 10.16 | (10.30) |
| 7. Troy Dos Santos | 10.36 | (10.51) |
| 8. Eric Frempong-Manso | 10.36 | (10.51) |
| Table 3: 1997 sub-10s World 100m Leaders, wind-corrected (to
13 Aug 1997) (best performances per athlete) | ||||
| 1. Maurice Greene | 9.88 | (9.86, +0.2) | 03 Aug 97 | Athens WC |
| 2. Donovan Bailey | 9.89 | (10.03, -2.1) | 19 Jul 97 | Abbotsford |
| 3. Ato Boldon | 9.90 | (9.90, +0.0) | 13 Jul 97 | Stuttgart |
| 4. Tim Montgomery | 9.94 | (9.92, +0.2) | 13 Jun 97 | Indianapolis |
| 5. Frank Fredericks | 9.94 | (9.98, -0.7) | 13 Aug 97 | Zurich |
| 6. Robert Esmie | 9.96 | (10.10, -2.1) | 19 Jul 97 | Abbotsford |
| 7. Jon Drummond | 9.97 | (9.92, +0.8) | 12 Jun 97 | Indianapolis |
| Table 4: All-time wind-corrected Sub-9.90s 100m times (to 13 Aug 1997) | ||||
| 9.84 | Frank Fredericks | (9.86,-0.4) | Lausanne | 03 Jul 1996 |
| 9.88 | Maurice Greene | (9.86, +0.2) | Athens | 03 Aug 1997 |
| Donovan Bailey | (9.84, +0.7) | Atlanta | 27 Jul 1996 | |
| 9.89 | Linford Christie | (9.87, +0.3) | Stuttgart | 15 Aug 1993 |
| Bailey | (10.03, -2.1) | Abbotsford | 19 Jul 1997 | |
| Leroy Burrell | (9.97, -1.3) | Barcelona | 01 Aug 1992 | |
| Table 5: All-time legal Sub-9.90s 100m times and wind-corrected equivalents (to 13 Aug 1997) | ||
| 1. Donovan Bailey | 9.84 (+0.7) | 9.88 |
| 2. Leroy Burrell | 9.85 (+1.2) | 9.92 |
| 3. Frank Fredericks | 9.86 (-0.4) | 9.84 |
| 4. Maurice Greene | 9.86 (+0.2) | 9.88 |
| 5. Carl Lewis | 9.86 (+1.2) | 9.93 |
| 6. Linford Christie | 9.87 (+0.3) | 9.89 |
| 7. Ato Boldon | 9.87 (+1.3) | 9.95 |
| 8. Burrell | 9.88 (+1.2) | 9.95 |
| 9. Frank Fredericks | 9.89 (+0.7) | 9.93 |
| 10. Boldon | 9.89 (+0.8) | 9.94 |
| Table 6: 1997 World Championships Men's 100m final; wind= +0.2 m/s | ||
| Athlete | Official (reaction) | Corrected |
| 1. Maurice Greene (USA) | 9.86 (+0.13) | 9.88 |
| 2. Donovan Bailey (CAN) | 9.91 (+0.14) | 9.93 |
| 3. Tim Montgomery (USA) | 9.94 (+0.13) | 9.96 |
| 4. Frank Fredericks (NAM) | 9.95 (+0.12) | 9.97 |
| 5. Ato Boldon (TRI) | 10.02 (+0.12) | 10.04 |
| 6. Davidson Ezinwa (NIG) | 10.10 (+0.13) | 10.12 |
| 7. Bruny Surin (CAN) | 10.12 (+0.14) | 10.14 |
| 8. Mike Marsh (USA) | 10.29 (+0.14) | 10.31 |
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